4.1.2Active indicatorCosts of Heat-related Mortality
4.1The economic impact of climate change and its mitigation
4.2The transition to net zero carbon, health-supporting economies
4.3Financial transitions for a healthy future
Indicator 4.1.2 · Economics
Costs of Heat-related Mortality
Extreme heat can cause premature death, resulting in the loss of years of life and substantial costs to society. As rising temperatures increase heat-related mortality, the resulting human loss is accompanied by growing social and economic burdens for families, communities, and economies. This indicator tracks the monetised value of heat-related mortality.
Headline finding
The global monetised value of heat-related mortality reached an estimated US$320 billion per year over 2016-2025, equivalent to 0.25% of global GDP annually. This represents a 47% increase compared with the 2006-2015 baseline, when heat-related deaths were valued at US$172 billion per year, or 0.17% of GDP.
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Figure 1
Costs of Heat-Related Mortality
Monetised value of heat-related mortality, from 2000 to 2025, presented as total economic costs, equivalent share of total costs relative to personal income, and percentage of total costs relative to GDP, by country, Human Development Index (HDI) group, World Health Organization (WHO) region, and Lancet Countdown region.
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About this indicator
Description
This indicator estimates the economic cost of heat-related mortality among adults aged 65 years and older by converting heat-attributable years of life lost (YLL) into monetary values. Heat-related deaths are estimated using temperature exposure–response relationships, age-specific mortality rates, population data, and standard life expectancy. Economic losses are valued using the OECD 2025 VSL/VSLY framework and reported as absolute costs in constant 2025 USD and relative to GDP.
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Caveats
This indicator estimates heat-related mortality independently using the ERF approach ; results are not directly comparable with Indicator 1.1.5, which uses a different methodological framework. The analysis covers only adults aged 65 and older, likely underestimating total economic burden. Results are sensitive to discount rate choice, which span a wide range. The assumption of a constant VSLY-to-GDP ratio across countries and years may not capture heterogeneity in preferences or welfare growth. Application of OECD-derived parameters to non-OECD settings involves further uncertainty. World Bank 2025 data were unavailable; 2024 values were used as proxies for 2025.
Data sources
- Daily maximum temperature (ERA5 reanalysis, 0.5°×0.5°): Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2000–2025.
- Age-specific all-cause mortality rates: Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), IHME. 2019 rates used as baseline for all years.
- Standard life expectancy by age group: WHO life tables.
- GDP per capita (constant 2015 USD): World Bank, NY.GDP.PCAP.KD, downloaded April 2025. Converted to constant 2025 USD using deflator of 1.18.
- Population (total): World Bank, SP.POP.TOTL, downloaded April 2025.
- VSL reference: OECD (2025). Mortality Risk Valuation in Policy Assessment: A Global Meta-Analysis. Table 6.1 (OECD population-weighted base VSL = USD 7.1 million, 2022 prices).
- OECD GDP per capita reference: OECD (2025), Annex G, Table AG.1 (USD 56,224, 2022 prices)