3.2.1Active indicatorMortality from Ambient Air Pollution
3.1Energy use, energy generation, and health
3.2Air quality and health co-benefits
3.3Food, agriculture, and health co-benefits
3.5Health-care Sector Emissions
Indicator 3.2.1 · Mitigation
Mortality from Ambient Air Pollution
Air pollution is one of the world’s biggest killers. It increases the risks of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, neurological disorders, and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Many major sources of air pollution are also key sources of greenhouse gas emissions, including the burning of fossil fuels. Addressing these emissions therefore offers opportunities for win-win climate and health interventions. This indicator tracks deaths from exposure to anthropogenic ambient PM2.5 air pollution broken down by source of emission and by activity sector, helping identify opportunities to design interventions with climate change and health co-benefits.
Headline finding
In 2023, ambient PM2.5 from fossil fuel combustion caused 2.78 million deaths, while 7.1 million deaths were attributable to all anthropogenic PM2.5 air pollution.
Data: loading…
Figure 1
Deaths from Ambient Air Pollution
Total deaths and deaths per 100,000 people attributable to exposure to human-caused ambient PM₂.₅ pollution, shown globally, by sector, from 2001 to 2023.
Loading chart…
Figure 2
Deaths from Ambient Air Pollution
Total deaths and deaths per 100,000 people attributable to human-caused ambient PM₂.₅ air pollution, shown globally and by sector, pollution source, country, Human Development Index group, WHO region and Lancet Countdown region, from 2001 to 2023.
Loading chart…
About this indicator
Description
This indicator quantifies contributions of individual source sectors and fuels to ambient PM2.5 exposure and its health impacts. Estimates of sectoral source contributions to annual mean exposure to ambient PM2.5 were calculated using the GAINS model, which combines bottom-up emission calculations with atmospheric chemistry and dispersion coefficients. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for calculating human health impacts were taken from the “Fusion” risk model described by Burnett et al. (2022), which takes a meta-analysis of cohort studies and applies a fusion model to the log-linear function relating to PM2.5 exposure with mortality. Particularly this model decreases the derivative responses at high PM2.5 concentrations, which allows for the limiting of the attributable risk at extremely high PM2.5 concentrations. The Fusion CRFs are given for six mortality endpoints related to air pollution exposure (IHD, COPD, stroke, lung cancer, ALRI, and type 2 diabetes) as well as total non-communicable disease plus lower respiratory infection (NCD LRI). For the reported mortalities, the NCD LRI CRFs were used following the analysis presented in a paper by Lelieveld et al. (2023).Baseline mortality numbers have been provided by the World Health Organization for the aggregate of non-communicable diseases plus lower respiratory infections over 25 years of age per country and year. Total population (for calculating attributable mortality rates) is taken from the UN World Population Prospects 2024. Attribution of estimated deaths from ambient air pollution to polluting sectors was done proportional to the contributions of individual sectors to population-weighted mean PM2.5 in each country.
Data downloads
Caveats
The indicator relies on model calculations which are inherently uncertain. The resolution of approximately seven to ten km is deemed appropriate for urban background levels of PM2.5 but may underestimate exposure in case of strong local PM2.5 increments. The meteorology year is fixed to 2015 (outside Europe) and 2016-2020 (Europe domain).
Uncertainty in the shape of concentration-response functions make the quantification of health burden inherently uncertain. Different risk models (like integrated exposure-response relationships used by Global Burden of Disease studies, the Fusion risk model used here, or linear relationships recommended by WHO Europe) lead to different estimates of attributable deaths. Premature mortality from exposure to fossil fuel based ambient air pollution calculated for the Lancet Countdown results in significantly lower estimates of premature mortality compared to a recent paper by Lelieveld et al. (2023) which utilises the same CRFs. Many aspects of the approaches between Lelieveld et al. (2023) and Lancet Countdown differ. A full analysis and quantification of differences is beyond the scope of the current study, however, the most important factors are:
- (1) Emission estimates of source pollutants
- (2) Modelling of ambient PM2.5
- (3) The treatment of natural PM2.5 and application of a theoretical minimum-risk exposure level (TMREL)
- (4) The research question and approach taken
This indicator was last updated in October 2025
Data sources
- Energy: IEA World Energy Balances for 2024 and World Energy Statistics 2024
- Non-energy related activities: Agricultural livestock data are based on FAO statistics and projections and fertiliser use is based on data from the International Fertilizer Association
- WHO household energy database for splitting urban and rural use of fuels for cooking
- UN World Population Prospects, 2024 update
- Mortality data: Global Health Estimates 2021: Deaths by Cause, Age, Sex, by Country and by Region, 2000-2021. World Health Organization. 2024