1.2.3Active indicatorExtreme Precipitation
1.1Heat and health
1.2Health and extreme weather-related events
1.3Climate suitability for infectious disease transmission
Indicator 1.2.3 · Hazards
Extreme Precipitation
Climate change is altering the intensity of precipitation, leading to more extreme rainfall and increased risk of surface flooding in many regions. Surface water flooding poses multiple risks to health, including injury and drowning, contamination of water supplies, increased risk of waterborne disease, and disruption to homes, health services, and essential infrastructure. This indicator tracks the proportion of global land exposed to extreme and very extreme daily precipitation events.
Headline finding
In 2016-25, 26.7% of the global land area was exposed to extreme precipitation, 3.1 percentage points more than 2006-15
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Figure 1
Extreme Precipitation
Annual percentage of global land area affected by at least one day of extreme precipitation and at least one day of very extreme precipitation between 1961 and 2025.
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Figure 2
Days of Extreme Precipitation
Using ERA5-Land reanalysis data, this map shows the average annual number of extreme and very extreme precipitation days during 2016–2025 and the change compared with 2006–2015. Extreme and very extreme precipitation are defined using >1-per-5-year and >1-per-10-year daily precipitation thresholds, respectively. Positive values indicate more frequent extreme precipitation days and negative values indicate fewer days.
Please reference the 2026 Report of the Lancet Countdown if using this data • For a full description of the indicator, see the 2026 report of the Lancet Countdown at lancetcountdown.org
About this indicator
Description
The indicator uses ERA5-Land daily precipitation data to identify extreme and very extreme rainfall events. For each gridcell, "extreme" days exceed the 99.945th percentile and "very extreme" days exceed the 99.973rd percentile, using a 1961–1990 reference period. Each year, gridcells are flagged as affected or unaffected by these events, and the percentage of global land area affected by at least one event is calculated. The indicator then compares 2016–2025 vs. 2006–2015 to assess whether affected land area is changing.
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Caveats
ERA5-based precipitation data doesn't use direct rain gauge measurements, it estimates precipitation using a weather forecasting model. Studies comparing ERA5 to gauge data show it slightly underestimates the most extreme daily rainfall totals, especially in tropical regions.
This indicator was last updated in September 2026
Data sources
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation-Land (ERA5-Land). Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store.